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☆ Holiday sales climb, boosting retailer hopes that shoppers will spend during uncertain 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Holiday sales rose 3.8% year over year to $964.4 billion, according to the National Retail Federation, as consumers spent on gifts and celebrations even after enduring a prolonged period of higher prices. The holiday sales total was not adjusted for inflation and included both in-store and online purchases. "Consumer spending was remarkably resilient throughout 2023 and finished the year with a solid pace for the holiday season," he said in a news release. Online sales and other nonstore sales rose 8.2% year over year. Average sales growth during the holiday season was 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, according to NRF data.

Persons: NRF, Jack Kleinhenz Organizations: Woodbury, National Retail Federation, Commerce Department, CNBC, NRF, Retail, Electronics, Federal, Abercrombie, Fitch, Eagle Outfitters, CNBC PRO Locations: Lacoste, Central Valley , New York, Lululemon

☆ Consumer spending growth will slow in 2024, economist predicts — it’s ‘not necessarily sustainable’
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Consumer spending remained remarkably resilient throughout 2023, even in the face of prolonged inflation and high interest rates. "Nonetheless, those tailwinds are not necessarily sustainable," Kleinhenz said in the January issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review, released Tuesday. Americans are racking up more 'phantom debt'56 million Americans have been in credit card debt for over a yearRecent reports already show signs of strain. In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, surpassing $1.08 trillion, according to the latest quarterly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month and fewer are able to pay off their balances in full.

Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: National Retail Federation, Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Deal-hungry shoppers will squeeze holiday sales growth to pre-pandemic levels, retail group says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Over the past decade, holiday sales have grown roughly 5% year over year on average, according to the NRF. Elevated prices are driving the reported sales growth, too. NRF's holiday forecast is not adjusted for inflation, which means the actual sales gains may not be as large as they seem. Despite the NRF's expectations for sales growth, major retailers including Target and Macy's have tempered expectations for the holidays. In the year-ago holiday season, retail sales rose 5.3% compared with 2021 and reached $936.3 billion, according to the NRF.

Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Matt Shay, Shay, Brian Cornell, they're, Prosper Organizations: National Retail Federation, Bureau, Labor, Target, Walmart, Home Depot

☆ Holiday shoppers are getting an early jump on the season, but student loan payments weigh heavily
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Twenty/20October is unofficial start of holiday shopping seasonThis year, half of shoppers plan to begin their holiday shopping by Halloween, according to a recent Bankrate report. Early estimates point to a strong shopping seasonWith more shoppers getting an early start on the season, holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 3.5% and 4.6% in 2023, according to Deloitte's annual forecast. "We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. Student loan payments could weigh on wallets"Student loan payments are another drag on the consumer," said Brett House, professor of professional practice in economics at Columbia Business School. "On the other hand, labor markets remain strong," House added.

Persons: RetailMeNot, Daniel Bachman, Matthew Shay, Jack Kleinhenz, Brett House Organizations: National Retail Federation, Columbia Business School Locations: Deloitte's U.S

☆ Credit card spending growth is slowing — it’s 'inevitable,' expert says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, while the personal savings rate fell. But revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, contracted in June, according to the Fed's G.19 consumer credit report released earlier this month. After a strong start to the year, credit and debit card spending started to slow in the spring, Bank of America's most recent consumer checkpoint found. Already, the average credit card rate is more than 20%, an all-time high. 'A consumer spending slowdown is inevitable'

Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Matt Shay, Shay Organizations: National Retail Federation, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bank of, Amazon Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Tax refunds are getting smaller, and fit into the picture of a slowing economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But as pandemic-related tailwinds run their course, another example becoming a thing of the recent past is bigger than typical tax refunds. "Earlier in the quarter, we were seeing taxes, your tax refunds higher year-over-year, during the last probably five or six weeks we've seen that decline. As pandemic-era benefits and tax credit wane, the tax refund data factors into the broader economic picture and the consumer as a source of strength. watch nowAll spending, not just retail spending, will be impacted by lower tax refunds, and that will continue into next quarter. The smaller tax refunds should not be a surprise to businesses — the data has been mounting over the past four to six weeks.

☆ U.S. holiday sales miss estimates as inflation drags demand: NRF
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. holiday sales rose by 5.3%, but fell short of estimates, as shoppers feeling the brunt of stubbornly high inflation pulled forward purchases to October when retailers offered hefty discounts, data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed on Wednesday. The leading retail industry group said including e-commerce, holiday sales jumped to $936.3 billion during November and December, missing its forecast of a rise of between 6% and 8% over 2021. "We knew it could be touch-and-go for final holiday sales given early shopping in October that likely pulled some sales forward plus price pressures and cold, stormy weather,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. However, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales dropped 1.1% in December putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a weaker growth path heading into 2023 as shoppers pulled forward holiday purchases into October. However, online holiday sales grew at the slowest pace as customers felt the brunt of rising prices.

The leading retail industry group said including e-commerce, holiday sales which is not adjusted for inflation jumped to $936.3 billion during November and December. It had previously forecast a rise of between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Separately, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales dropped 1.1% in December putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a weaker growth path heading into 2023. According to the NRF, online and other non-store sales were up 9.5% at $261.6 billion, which fell short of its forecast of a 10% to 12% growth. During the holiday period, furniture and home furnishings stores saw sales drop 1.1%, while electronics and appliance sales fell 5.7% - the only two categories that saw a decline in the season.

The holiday shopping season is in full effect as Thanksgiving week begins, and retailers are nervous. Data from the research group Factset show inventory levels among retailers including Walmart, Target, Amazon and Best Buy remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels. But those sales events are also coming at a time of a slowing economy and the ongoing weight of inflation, retail executives say. Despite the mixed economic signals, the U.S. Census Bureau reported unexpectedly strong retail sales for October. The National Retail Federation said earlier this month that it expects annual holiday sales growth to hit between 6% and 8%.

☆ U.S. holiday sales to slow as inflation tests consumer resilience -report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/3] A boy and his father walk through the toy section of Walmart on Black Friday, a day that kicks off the holiday shopping season, in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, U.S., on November 29, 2019. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger./File PhotoNov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. holiday sales are expected to rise at a slower pace this year, a trade group said on Thursday, at a time when decades-high inflation has left Americans struggling to pay bills, draining some of the Christmas cheer from households. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast holiday sales, including e-commerce and non-store sales, to rise between 6% and 8% to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion during November and December. "While (early discounts) may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months," NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. "In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season," President and Chief Executive Matthew Shay said.

☆ Inflation to dampen holiday spending, retail trade group forecasts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Melissa Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Getting shoppers to spend this holiday season won't be easy. "Some of that is going to impact their gift giving and how they cover their other expenses during the holiday season," he said. Other industry-watchers have also forecast a muted holiday season. Last year, holiday sales jumped 14.1% and hit a record of $886.7 billion. That growth compares with an average 4.4% increase in holiday sales over the previous five years.

☆ UPS and Fedex are in for reckoning as the e-commerce boom cools and new competitors fight for a shrinking number of packages
▼ + stars: | 2022-05-26 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The pandemic-driven e-commerce boom buoyed results for UPS and FedEx the past two years. E-commerce sales in the first quarter were up nearly 7% from the first quarter of 2021, according to the US Census Bureau. The other is that the slowdown may loosen the two companies' grip on the pricing power they've held for the past two years. On the downward slope of the pandemic e-commerce boom, UPS and FedEx are going to be left with a smaller slice of a smaller pie. So far, both carriers are holding fast to their pricing power in the customary first-quarter contract negotiations, according to Roberson.

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